What Are Fleet Automobiles
A brand new research titled “Transforming the best way DoD Looks at Energy: An petroleum equipmentmpany orlando disney Strategy to Establishing an Power Strategy” was made public on May eight, 2007. See EnergyBulletin for associated news about the report.
The research is prepared by LMI Government Consulting for the Department of Protection. The goal, LMI says, to develop an method to establishing a DoD vitality technique.
Written by seven folks, this 138 pages lengthy study is general somewhere between dangerous and ugly. However, it has only a few good options.
The need for DoD to implement an energy technique just isn’t new. Improvement of modern new concepts ranging from propulsion to various fuels which might scale petroleum equipmentmpany orlando disney back military’s energy dependence has been on the table for a long time. What has not but been clarified is the which means of DOD’s vitality dependence. The LMI study doesn’t give something new on that entrance. “Reduced consumption of gas – especially foreign fuel” sort of logic is totally misleading.
Dependence on overseas gasoline “limits our flexibility in coping with producer nations who oppose or hinder our objectives for better prosperity and liberty,” the study argues. So, if this dependence have been broken all the issues would be solved In fact No! That’s why possibly the study recommends “DoD ought to begin now to form the force for an uncertain vitality future.” This brings us to a different deceptive challenge of the study — power. Energy is a normal term and includes different forms of vitality beside oil. The study concentrates mainly on oil and does not ignore electricity. Ignored are pure gasoline and coal, that are seen solely as feedstock to supply synthetic oil.
If natural gasoline shouldn’t be price it to debate why then the US Military called for a examine entitled “The Impression on the Army from the Adjustments on the earth Provide and Demand Situation for Pure Gas over the following 25 Years.” See EnergyBulletin for particulars. I discussed on my blog why Army’s fear is exaggerated. In any case natural gas is greater than feedstock.
Now let me go into particular components of the LMI examine.
1. What stuck me most is how the report is written. I mean what is the point to present a reference where it is absolutely not needed, but not give the place it’s an absolute necessity. Furthermore, such a examine ought to have made use of at the least a few of the very beneficial and insightful articles appeared in army journals.
2. I favored the next paragraph within the examine:
“The United States bears many prices related to the stability of the worldwide oil market and infrastructure. The price of securing Persian Gulf sources alone involves $forty four.4 billion annually. DoD receives little assist from different consuming nations to perform this mission though they share in the advantages as a result of the global nature of the oil market.”
Statistics at all times get consideration of the people. But it is at all times useful to offer the most recent estimates, which is not the case in many elements of the research. $44.4 billion determine belongs to Milton R. Copulos, President of the Nationwide Defense Council Basis. It was his estimation in 2003. In January 2007 he elevated his old estimate of “the fixed costs of defending Persian Gulf oil amounted to $forty nine.1 billion annually” to “$137.8 billion.”
three. The authors ought to have read the correction version of the EIA’s AEO, because they are saying on web page 2-1 that “Consistent with the worldwide tendencies in power demands, it is projected that by 2025, the U.S. must import some sixty eight % of its oil.” Does the AER 2007 p. 97 says so
Four. The good news in the study is that it recognizes the importance of data: “….requires an understanding of the DoD energy consumption profile (how and the place is vitality being consumed)…DoD has a complicated energy consumption profile that’s tough to ascertain from the data obtainable. In many cases, detailed energy supply information are available (what’s delivered to the theater or the battlefield), but not detailed consumption information for precise army operations (how the petroleum was really used, e.g. tactical automobiles, logistics, and generators).” That’s completely true in case you are searching for time sequence. However it isn’t an excuse for such a examine. In any case there exist way more information than utilized in LMI study. Even my humble Excel sheets include at least one thousand times more data points than LMI research. And i do it as a interest!
The dangerous news is that the LMI examine does not perceive data nicely. They supposedly use “data from the Annual Report to Congress (FY06) issued by DoD.” DOD issues every Fiscal Yr an Annual Report to the President and to the Congress. In that report vitality consumption figures are given in detail. The newest obtainable report (on internet) is for fiscal 12 months 2005. Actually the LMI research used Annual Vitality Management Report (AEMR) which is supplied to the President for Fiscal 12 months 2006.
However AEMR does not embrace fleet vehicles. What are fleet vehicles They’re passenger cars, vans, busses, SUVs and many others. Division of Energy provides DOD’s fleet vehicles power consumption into AEMR car consumption figures and the ultimate statistics are supplied in Annual Report to Congress on Federal Authorities Power Administration and Conservation Packages.
Therefore, all of the fancy vitality saving estimates for mobility operations given in Appendix G of the LMI examine excludes fleet vehicle energy consumption. In different phrases, it excludes over 2 million barrels, even if it’s only 2 p.c of whole automobile consumption.
5. Concerning power consumption in services the LMI report claims that the discount in power use due conservation. This is identical mistake (deliberate or not) carried out by everybody. Conservation nonetheless was not the primary cause. The main causes have been the closure of some bases and more importantly privatization of amenities, which mechanically moved utility payments from direct to oblique prices.
6. What stuck me most in LMI examine is US military oil consumption in Afghanistan and Iraq. LMI research quotes an article of Max Boot in LA instances in July 2006 saying “about 2.Four million gallons of fuel daily in Iraq and Afghanistan.”
The information, provided by the U.S. Central Command, LMI examine says, “show that DoD is utilizing roughly 57,000 barrels a day, at a value of about $three million per day. This equates to about sixteen gallons per soldier per day. This is significantly more than the 2005 consumption charge of 9 gallons per soldier. These numbers make it clear that vitality consumption for military operations has elevated dramatically in the final 15 years. In Desert Storm, consumption was four gallons per soldier per soldier, and in World Warfare II, consumption was solely 1 gallon per day per soldier.”
Here I have a couple of remarks to make.
First, 2.4 million gallons makes 57,000 barrels, so what is the purpose of giving the identical thing in two totally different items.
Second, did USCENTCOM gave the LMI such a knowledge Or somehow all are utilizing my estimates in June 2006
Third, what’s the supply of 16 or 9 gallons per soldier per day. It’s not possible to come up with such an estimate. I’d understand if it had been 16 times extra gas. But it surely says sixteen occasions more fuel PER SOLDIER.
Anyway, now compare that figure with what Carlton Meyer, a former Marine officer who runs G2mil Quarterly, an internet site on army issues, mentioned “The U.S. Army burned 12 times more fuel per soldier in Iraq than it did in France in 1944 — 9 gallons of gas per soldier per day in 2004.” It is Robert Bryce (In May 2005 issue of The Atlantic Monthly) who got here up with 1 gallon per day per soldier estimate however it was for the Third Army (of Common Patton).
My estimate, which was quoted in a Wall Road Journal article: “the military makes use of fuel at twice the rate it did in the primary Persian Gulf Struggle and 4 instances the rate it did within the Second World War.”
7. Here’s a touchy level from the research: “While estimates differ on the availability of recoverable oil at near current costs (doubtlessly 25 to 50 years), the lengthy period to develop alternate sources of fuel and changes in power infrastructure and the long capital asset alternative cycle for DoD make it crucial that the development and implementation of a complete power technique be a matter of urgency.”
Now evaluate that paragraph with the following one, especially the first line.
“To effectively plan for the longer term in a world with increasingly scarce low-price fossil fuel vitality resources, DoD should leverage technology to facilitate enhancements in fuel vitality efficiency. Demand discount measures, combined with different sources of energy, including different fuels, supply many potentialities for lowering DoD’s dependence on conventional power sources and the associated logistics assist requirements.”
So, in line with them Peak Oil is imminent or not And based mostly on those two paragraphs how ought to we interpret their conclusion
“DoD ought to begin now to posture the force for achievement in an setting of increasing power uncertainty.”
8. Now let us have a look at vitality change options analyzed in the LMI study:
Provide oriented know-how choices to change fossil fuels: Artificial fuels, biofuels, hydrogen, nuclear, geothermal.
Demand oriented expertise choices to reduce gas consumption: engines, material design, hybrid drive, unmanned petroleum equipmentmpany orlando disney vehicles, aerodynamic design, macro-electric architecture, info know-how and administration, low power computing.
Cross cutting technologies to replace local supply and reduce logistics demand: generators, gasoline cells, solar, wind, ocean vitality, conversion of waste to vitality
None of those are new to DOD and does not add something to DOD’s information.
9. One essential worth of the LMI report is its summary of DOD power group, process and initiatives in addition to legislations and government orders, coverage guidance and instructions on implementations.
10. DoD ought to start now to posture the power for fulfillment in an setting of increasing power uncertainty.
Conclusion: I actually have not understood why DOD requested for such a research that did not carry something new. By the best way, was LMI paid for the examine
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